Bitcoin seems to finally be taking a breather after a monstrous week jumping nearly 30% and hitting just above $93,000 yesterday so have we topped or are we just warming up for another big run if we’re not done yet how high can Bitcoin go what is the total addressable market for Bitcoin today we dive in to discuss all the possibilities this cycle and Beyond as I attempt to answer the age-old question that comes up every single cycle am I too late to bitcoin what a week I got to say I’m pretty relieved to see Bitcoin taking a breather here today as the rocket boosters seem to have cooled off and we begin a little bit of a consolidation just below $90,000 per coin now this obviously could be shortlived as we’re clearly in Uncharted Territory and early in price discovery mode and positive news just keeps dropping as today Pennsylvania’s House of Representatives introduced a bill to establish a strategic Bitcoin Reserve this was just another logical step in the direction towards a strategic Reserve at the national level and a positive sign as we will likely see other states introducing ilar bills in the coming months on top of that the ETF inflows just keep coming a senior ETF analyst for Bloomberg Eric Bel chunez writes yesterday I thought things were cooling off but no ibit just saw $ billion in volume today for the first time ever only three ETFs and eight stocks saw more action today up to $13 billion in 3 days this week its peers seeing heighten volume two but smaller scale fbtc did 1 billion its biggest day since March also from balunis today as year-to-date ETF flows get closer to the $1 trillion Mark he says so close ETF flows year-to date are up to $99 billion a mere 1 billion shy of breaking an annual record they are having one hell of a second half already the best half ever recorded with 489 billion and here’s the thing historically speaking December is the best month for flows $1 trillion is looking good and this one from James cord also from Bloomberg us spot Bitcoin ETFs now own an estimated 1.07 million Bitcoin as a group they’re likely to pass to Toshi’s estimated Holdings of 1.1 million BTC in the next few days or weeks so this rally seems to be largely on the backs of ETF flows as investor sentiment following the Trump Victory continues to benefit Bitcoin van X head of digital research Matthew seagull was on CNBC yesterday talking about why he thinks this rally is just getting started the price of Bitcoin briefly uh hitting the $993,000 level before pulling back it’s up more than 150% uh this year let’s talk about the crypto market and bring in Matthew seagull head of uh digital assets research uh at vanc I thought Matt that it was definitely um long in the tooth this sort of um Mania you say there’s at least for your work that you don’t necessarily see that yet in terms of uh whether it’s totally overdone Joe we think it’s just getting started as we expected Bitcoin saw this High volatility pump after the election uh we’re now in Blue Sky territory no technical resistance and we think we’re likely to make repeated all-time highs over the next two quarters the same pattern played out four years ago between the election and the end of the year in 2020 Bitcoin doubled there were about six 10% Corrections so it’s not going to be a straight line but we’re up 30% so far and a number of indicators that we track are still flashing green for this rally to continue this is a state change in terms of government support look at this cabinet the VP attorney general director of Defense National Security adviser possibly even the Secretary of Treasury being pro Bitcoin uh that’s not including Elon and VC uh so the number of calls that I’m getting inbound from investment advisers who are at zero and looking to get to 1% or at 1% and looking get to 3% these calls are starting to accelerate and we think the flows are going to follow so our price target for this cycle is 180k we think we can reach that next year that would be a th% return from the bottom to the peak this cycle that’s still the smallest Bitcoin cycle uh by far and double from here so you you Google search Google search for Bitcoin is is one of the the thing so you would expect if we were getting toppy you would expect that that was off the charts and and it’s not yet Google searches are nowhere near where they were four years ago uh coinbase’s rank in the Apple and Android App Stores nowhere near where it was four years ago look at the internals of the derivative markets uh what it costs for funding to put on bitcoin Futures trades you know it it’s up but once we get into this price discovery mode it tends to stay elevated for quite some time so seagull is estim remaining a $180,000 top in 2025 which even he admits is quite conservative when compared to other Cycles he mentions this move being telegraphed from what happened four years ago in late 2020 when Bitcoin quickly doubled leading into the year end this makes me think about how far we’ve truly come in the four years since then I remember the overwhelming skepticism around Bitcoin in 2020 was that government regulation would squash it well fast forward to today and it’s that skepticism that has been completely squashed as Bitcoin has received overwhelmingly positive regulation and as seagull pointed out the Trump cabinet is full of Bitcoin supporters plus you have to take into account Trump’s newly formed Department of government efficiency headed by Elon Musk and Vivic ramaswami now I just got to say it’s quite ironic that a new bureaucratic government department has sprung up in order to quell government inefficiency and cut spending it’s kind of hilarious but I digress Elon Musk who holds some Bitcoin on the Tesla and SpaceX balance sheets posted this on X early this morning the excess government spending is what causes inflation all government spending is taxation this is a very important concept to appreciate it is either either direct taxation like income tax or indirect inflation due to increasing the money supply this is something straight out of the mouth of Austrian economists and Bitcoin maximalists and Elon now holds an important position to help increase government efficiency wild times so how high can Bitcoin go this cycle and Beyond what happens if the Trump Administration actually follows through with plans on creating a US national strategic reserve of Bitcoin Mike novogratz CEO of Galaxy digital was on Bloomberg open interest yesterday talking about the chances of a strategic Bitcoin Reserve inflation and where Bitcoin is headed hi I want to get back to crypto here and I want to talk about the possibility of a Bitcoin strategic Reserve you think about this rally that we’re seeing uh in Bitcoin which is one of the purest supply and demand markets and one of the reasons I keep hearing is that there’s a lot of optimism that we could see the United States government buy up to a million worth of bitcoin now that you do have all these crypto advocates in Congress are you confident that we could see something like that I still think it’s a low probability right you you know how Congress works the house gets excited or the executive gets excited and the Senate says calm down right that’s the role of the Senate and while the Republicans control the Senate they don’t have 60 seats they don’t have close to 60 and so listen I think it would be very smart for the United States to take the Bitcoin they have and maybe add some to it and say we want to show the world that we’re going to be a technology first country a crypto digital asset first country I don’t necessarily think the dollar needs anything to back back it up we have the strongest military in the world we have the dominant economy in the world and the reserve currency we’ve earned and to need to back up the reserve currency is counterintuitive and so again I listen if we get the Bitcoin reserve and as a guy that owns a lot of Bitcoin I will not cry and if you see me crying they’ll be crocodile tear I think Bitcoin heads to 500,000 again it’s it’s a whole different Paradigm because it forces every other country and countries are already buying it I’ve got a dear friend the guy that actually turned me on to Bitcoin in 2013 who’s in the mid East right now and he said he’s never seen anything like it he’s he’s convincing more people to boy Bitcoin in the three days he’s been there than any time in his whole career uh and they’re huge pools of capital and so we’re seeing something globally when Trump advocated in Nashville that he was going to be a crypto president a Bitcoin president and now he’s the president let me tell you otherly ERS heard that and so I think we’re we’re we’re strapping in for what could be an amazing rally I want to get back to your point on um you know hyperinflation Mike or at least more than 4% I look uh at a longer term chart of Bitcoin say five years and in that runup um post or during covid I always see an inflation indicator here um I know that there was a lot of helicopter money that helped out as well um as people being home with nothing to do but to me it was an indication um that at least this community saw massive inflation coming and that was borne out do you not see the most recent runup as the same sort of signal yeah I listen so when the government’s printing as much money is they I mean the Bitcoin narrative the only narrative really for Bitcoin is it’s a hard asset in a world where you’re going to debase Fiat currencies like that’s the story forget any other story like you know when Bitcoin they say oh we’re going to be level twos and we’re going to do nfts on it I always think that just confuses the story My Eyes glaze over yeah the story is digital gold it is a hard asset that’s believed to be a hard asset by the people that participate in its community and it’s really hard in a world of populism not just in the United States all over the world for governments to not want to spend more how how soon do you get to 500,000 that’s kind of a stunning level to think about but you know we’re probably going to hit $100,000 this year if if we keep on going at this rate yeah so listen the the total market cap of gold I think is like 16 trillion right and so that’s 800,000 Bitcoin so when does Bitcoin become gold like this is a new generation that cares more about Bitcoin than they care about gold I’m I’m turning 60 next week and so I still own a bunch of gold I’m an old guy but let me tell you no 40y olds on gold no 30-year-olds on gold and so as we see this generational shift like Bitcoin should match Gold within five or 10 years and and and that gets you to 800,000 that’s with current gold prices I think Gold’s going higher so it seems Max Kaiser isn’t the only one saying Bitcoin is coming for the market cap of gold but even beyond that of gold how high can Bitcoin actually go many of you I’m sure are getting messages from friends and family asking if they’re too late to bitcoin this happens every single cycle without fail people thought they were too late when it was $100 a th000 and again when it was $10,000 if you really zoom out and put in the work to understand the fundamentals you start to see that there is no top to the potential price of Bitcoin it is by far the best asymmetric investment bet on the planet Earth in this post on X from stack hodler puts it way better than I can how high can Bitcoin go most people can’t handle the answer to this question right now it’s the eth most valuable asset in the world its market cap is comparable to Google Amazon and Saudia ramco but Bitcoin has vastly higher upside than those companies investors are slowly realizing that Bitcoin is on a path to matching and then surpassing Gold’s market cap that’s for Chex from here or $875,000 per coin but even that is just the beginning how many people do you know that use gold as a primary store of value most value is stored in equity indexes bonds and real estate there’s roughly 115 trillion in equities 380 trillion in real estate 140 trillion in fixed income which equals 635 trillion in wealth stored in assets that are all inferior to Bitcoin in some crucial way equities can be endlessly diluted rely on business execution have competitive risk regulatory risk trust busting risk jurisdictional risk keyman risk Etc real estate has maintenance costs property taxes physical risk of deterioration or complete loss Insurance costs Etc debt instruments have default risk currency risk and no fixed Supply Bitcoin is comparatively simple fixed Supply known issue in schedule neutral not tied to any single country’s future and can be held indefinitely at zero cost so instead of comparing Bitcoin to individual equities or gold we should be asking what percentage of the $600 $ 35 trillion of wealth it can eat a modest 10% that’s $3.2 million per coin in today’s money but then the question is what will the remaining Bond equity and real estate holders do when Bitcoin is sitting at a $63 trillion market cap and has had 3,200 gain since hitting 100K keep in mind there’s no theoretical upper limit for bitcoin’s valuation unlike a business that’s anchored by its Revenue Bitcoin doesn’t become overpriced in the same way it’s meant to suck in all the monetary premium in the world because it’s simply the best store of value that Humanity has ever seen and so we return to the earliest price prediction ever made $10 million per coin shortly after receiving the first ever Bitcoin transaction polymath haly speculated that Bitcoin could one day reach $10 million per coin and as we near the $100,000 per coin psychological barrier that prediction appears more preent by the day you are not late to bitcoin this journey is just beginning and you have the rest of your life to enjoy the gains so you can safely tell all your friends and family that no you are not too late to bitcoin mark my words there will be a time in the not too distant future where everyone will think you were lucky to buy in below 100K so keep calm and double down on your conviction by learning more there is an overwhelming abundance of excellent resources to learn about this thing books podcasts online courses videos documentaries don’t just take my or anyone else’s word for it don’t be lazy put in the work and learn for yourself don’t trust verify if you’re new to the Bitcoin Rabbit Hole swan has curated some of the best resources to get you started we call it the Bitcoin Canon visit swan. comom Canon to start your Learning Journey today I will also leave a link in the description to the first lesson in our welcome to bitcoin course which is a free introductory course for everyone visit swann.com welcome to sign up and start learning that’s it for today let me know what you think in the comments below like this video and share it with friends and family who are asking if they’re too late and of course subscribe to the channel for more High signal Bitcoin content thanks for watching and enjoy this cool off period because I suspect it’s going to be very shortlived
