hey guys welcome back now one of the big questions everybody would love to know for this year is how high is Bitcoin and the crypto Market going to go what will be the ultimate blowoff Top This Time Around well unfortunately nobody has a crypto ball and all we can do is make predictions off the data that we have and so in this video just for a bit of fun we’ll be looking at three different price prediction models to see what they are saying and the one I’ll be personally using myself and we’ll start from the most bullish working down to the most conservative and then we can piece together everything and get a rough guideline okay so first up starting with the most bullish price prediction we have everybody’s favorite Anonymous crypto Trader Plan B actually quickly before we jump into the first prediction I just want to cover the question will this Market even crash as as this Market progresses and crypto starts to go ballistic I guarantee there’s going to be so many people saying that this time is different crypto isn’t going to have another big crypto winter because of all the corporations and institutions that are now buying and detail and the fact that it’s International the market should just keep going up nicely well although that certainly is a possibility for me I don’t think it’s likely and this is why and it all has to do with human nature unfortunately we are just millions and millions of primates all around the world operating primarily from fear and greed and we all have our goals and wants and needs and hopes and dreams and then add on to that the fact that we can borrow money in various places use leverage in various places unfortunately human nature isn’t going to change this year and it’s why like in every other Marketplace we’re going to still get Cycles now if crypto were just to grow nicely just very slowly very consistently this would be the True Value then maybe we wouldn’t get a crash but what happens is that the price starts going up this triggers people’s greed gland they begin buying more and making money lots of people begin using leverage to get maximum gains pushing the price even higher then a large part of the market becomes fearful and begins selling when there’s more sellers than buyers this begins a Cascade people start panicking the fear part of our brain kicks in people really really do not like losing money that they’ve just made Panic selling occurs also a segment of the market are Traders they know things have got out of hand they begin shorting as well price starts dumping retail starts panicking causing a massive Cascade things go low than the fair value of where it should be and once we get to a certain point where enough people around the world begin to get greedy and buying it then changes the price once there’s more buyers than sellers price starts to go up retail’s greed gland kicks in more people start buying and the whole thing just repeats and this is why we get cycles and this is why I think crypto is going to crash again even in markets like the S&P 500 which is now 67 years old so extremely established loads of Corporations and institutions buying you’ll still see that price goes up and down up and down up and down up and down even in an incredibly established Market the price doesn’t just have a straight line that never comes down and this even 67 years on the SNP can lose a quarter of its value in a matter of months so if you think that all of a sudden crypto is magically never going to crash again I would say just prepare for that scenario now could it crash less instead of going down 70% or 80% will it be less this time it certainly could one of my assumptions is that the market will maybe just crash about 50% this time so having established the fact that the market is likely to crash again the big question is where is the top of this cycle going to be now we do discuss stock to flow quite frequently on this channel so I won’t spend too much time on this but Creator Plan B and stock to flow is based on stock and flow so stock is the amount of Bitcoin available and the flow is how much new Bitcoin gets added and every four years the new Supply coming onto the market gets halved and because of supply and demand the price has to readjust which is why this last time around the Haring it’s around $50,000 and so it really needed to get to about $100,000 double and what do we see lo and behold at the time of this recording we are now around 100,000 so so far the model has been pretty good you can see distinct booms and busts in the crypto market and prediction One stock to flow is saying that in this next bull market cycle the average price end of 2025 2026 is going to be around $500,000 and considering we’re at 100,000 right now that is one hell of a move in just one year now for me out of the three price predictions I’d say this one is the most unlikely in my humble opinion the Assumption on this model is that we are we are not going to continue to get diminishing returns all of a sudden it’s going to go exponential break the trend so that is price prediction number one number two and this one is in fact my favorite this one is using the cycle bottom so you can see all of these bull markets ultimately come crashing down and bottom around the same time then from the bottom to the market Peak it gives you these multiples and this is my preferred way to make a prediction on price and quite simply this one you can clearly see diminishing returns the first cycle did over a 200x next cycle over a 100x so one hell of a drop then from 100 down to 20 again a massive drop and so the assumption that I have made is that this time around it probably halfs again to a 10x from the bottom and the bottom bitcoin’s price was 177,000 so 10x from there maybe a best case scenario Mario would be a 15x if things really go crazy so based on the Assumption of a 10 to 15x this gives a range of $160,000 on the low end to $240,000 on the high end so that is price prediction number two number three a very quick and simple way to get a very rough estimate would be just to use bitcoin’s price and what we can do is we can look at the previous alltime high and make an assumption about how much higher it’s going to go now we do have to factor in diminishing returns because from this high to this High there’s a 1, 600% then from this high to this high you can see see only 240% So based on diminishing returns I’d say next time is probably going to be either a 100 to 200% which is two to three times so based off that very simple assumption If the previous high was 70,000 this gives a range of on the low side 140,000 and the upper range of 210,000 this is also a very quick and easy way to try to see how big the crypto Market in total is going to go as well so if we take this High here well that was a wick up I think the more candles you can hit the better so probably this level is better and again this just Wicked very very briefly but you can see more candles are being hit here so if we take what happen happened last time from there to there you’re looking just under 400% so yes there’s really not a lot of data points at all so take all of this with a huge pinch of salt but if last time it’s around 400% which is a 5x we said Bitcoin maybe will do a 2 to three so my assumption would be somewhere in between and say the crypto Market a three times maybe four times increase this time around now as the crypto Market is more volatile than Bitcoin maybe we give a slightly bigger bracket so if it peaked out at around 3 trillion I would say your range is probably going to be 9 trillion to about 12 trillion that would be my best guesstimate and right now we’re at about 3 and2 trillion so still plenty to go once we add in all the alt coins and then as a bit of a bonus I’ll throw in one more just to say happy Friday and this is bitcoin’s power law method so it was Plan B that put this on my radar as he keeps mentioning about the power law crew so this is something that I hadn’t followed myself so jumping into this research what it does is just take a power law of this growing overtime they looked at the previous Cycles they overlaid it and it says if the market keeps growing as it’s growing again with diminishing returns based on these Cycles we’re going to get a nice Peak around April time probably around $177,000 we’ll get a nice big correction and then the market will alter timately Peak out towards the end of the year again it’s going to be about November so this does marry up with the cycle low pretty much exactly and saying that it’s going to break above $200,000 $210,000 so weirdly enough this also correlates to the other ones as well so that was bitcoin’s power law method one of the big questions everybody wants to know this year is how high is Bitcoin and the crypto Market ultimately going to go this year now unfortunately last time I checked still Nobody Knows the future so all we can do is make predictions from various places the most bullish is stock to flow with an average price of $500,000 seems a bit High to me 10 times to 15 times from the cycle bottom gives a range of 160 to 240,000 going off bitcoin’s previous all-time high we have two times or three times giving $40 or $210,000 and then as a bit of a bonus we sold the Bitcoin power law method which also gives a top around 210,000 so there you are guys hope you enjoyed now my personal favorite is still the cycle bottom the range of a low of around $160,000 and the Range High topping out $240,000 would probably be my best guess however let me know your thoughts below and if you do have any burning questions then simply use super thanks however just remember to get rid of 100% of the comments spam and trading Bots that Plague YouTube comments we are trying out the new super thanks commenting system so to get your question or comment read and replied to or just to say thanks then use super thanks below and for now just to say if you did enjoy anything in the video then drop a like and a big thank you to everyone who does and I’ll see you in the next video bye for now.
