prices are exploding across the board and these three sections have the key to what comes next for BTC we’ve been covering this now on the channel for many years getting in at the lows looking at how they develop across the course of a bull market and then how do they end up towards the peak this is the final section the end game if you will for the entire cryptocurrency Market stock markets and real estate of course if you’ve been here on the channel you know I’m talking about the 18e cycle we are leading into that Peak like subscribe I got heaps to get through in today’s video with you as we end out the week end out the month and tomorrow celebrate my birthday guys it’s your home of macro cycle analysis with me Jason Pino as I said heaps to get through with you today cryptos Bitcoin stock markets and of course the real estate cycle it is our fourth birthday sale and as I said it’s my birthday tomorrow you can guess how old I am if you want to be part of t a premium this is the best sale outside of Black Friday that’s a long way away Link in the top of the video description name email is about 24 to 48 hours to go on this sale I’ll leave the rest up to you guys 18e cycle let’s start where we are here and the good news I have an update for this coming your way today check it out on X link will be down below winners curse phase we’re coming to an end and again I’m I’m highlighting the fact that we’re starting to see higher higher prices along with other signs through the market like Commodities that have also begun to put in higher lows so what happens in the winers curse phase basically everything goes up we’ve seen that across the board with real estate the stock markets obviously Bitcoins at alltime highs altcoins put those to the side that is like super degenerate risk on assets along with you know Meme stocks and all that sort of stuff so when things get into a hype mode that’s when you’ll start to see those things go crazy but for the rest of the market we’re seeing all-time high prices so let’s kick it off with Bitcoin some good news and some I guess bad news for the quarter but uh for now we got the end of the month for January looks like it’s going to close out green here at 12% what comes for February you may have seen this before 78% chance of a green month in February however I’m not holding my breath that it’s going to be a super big green month very well could be but if I take a look back at say 2023 it was almost flat there so we had a pretty good January and then through into February we got a you know 0.03 so barely a green month there we had a green month 2020 turned into a red obviously there was a CO dump and then the market took off from that point and another one here this was through the bare market so the January came in at 16% the following month was red so if we take out the bare markets there’s a a good little strategy there to have a look at the these percentages comes up at 80 call it 82% hit rate for a green February so there’s always the chance that you’re going to see a red obviously it’s one in five at this at this time we’re looking at a 4 in five chance that we’re going to see a green Feb but I just did want to highlight the point that some of those greens aren’t necessarily you know big green dildo months like the case of 2023 uh you know 11% probably not that big of a a dildo either 2019 and taking it back to 2016 at 18% and 2017 which the cycle is most representing I’ll get to that in just a moment looking at The Quarters here to close out at least January we got two more months to go still in the green obviously that’s just January but again these quarters are looking at roughly 60% green for quarter 1 if we take out the bare Market year that’s 2014 2018 2022 that obviously improves the statistic here here 75% so 3 out of four times we should get a green quarter one this is January into March and with those quarters they don’t always have to be anything super impressive you got 12% for 2017 the rest of those quarters look pretty good 2024 we had a very strong one 2023 we had a very strong one 2021 obviously really really strong everyone was going nuts 2019 not so strong and as I just pointed out with 2017 roughly only 12% so that’s what I want to have a look at next with the the Bitcoin chart here and the main thing I want to highlight because we have a lot to get through is the quarters within a bull market how many green how many red so here is the Bitcoin bull market for 2021 uh this one here is 2017 this one here is 2013 uh sorry going all the way back here into 2010 into 2013 note that there was one two three red quarters that was for the 2013 here is 2017 we had 1 2 three red quarters and for 2021 Peak obviously it started in 2018 1 2 3 four red quarters one of those quarters was obviously the the co dump which did recover pretty damn well after the you know the biggest pandemic in our lifetimes living history and it’s still closed just uh 10% down from the previous quarter so you know I’m looking at that as definitely three red quarters this one here was the outlier got four but it was a very strong close on that um you know for that quarter as well so where do we find ourselves well we’ve had one red quarter we had another red quarter last year for quarter 2 that one there came in quarter 3 of 2023 and we’re still without our third red quarter obviously if we go by the B Bitcoin bull markets lasting roughly 1,000 to 1100 days that would take us out to the end of this year so roughly quarter 4 in 2025 maybe it happens late quarter 3 maybe it happens early quarter 4 that’s not the point this at this stage but it is running out of time for another uh red quarter if we’re going to see three red quarters in this cycle and I think at the moment this might be the quarter of course along with the other statistical probability of quarter 3 being that red quarter and then taking off into quarter 4 and the whole game’s over this would be the quarter that I would look at for any sort of um red coming in doesn’t mean it has to happen but we have seen two greens and a red two greens and a red two greens maybe we’ll get three greens but if we get a red I would still suggest that the bull market is not over based on what I was looking at um and what I talked about in the intro of this video with each of these sections of the S&P 500 basically being in a straight up bull market uh this is a monthly chart with the G swing pro this is part of the bundle for Tia premium so you got Tia indicator suite and tia premium all part of the fourth birthday sale and on this one we haven’t seen any breakdowns of the monthly swing bottom so that’s really really important to identify the trend and let us know that the buyers are basically stepping in every time we see some sort of Correction and that’s essentially what’s been happening this this cycle as well so we had the low in 2022 higher lows on the monthly chart ever since that point and of course the bull market has continued on with uh you know through 2022 2023 2024 now 2025 we look back into 2021 same sort of thing here obviously the co dump broke those lows but it happened on bitcoin basically happened on the markets around the globe and from there you basically have all of the monthly swing bottoms intact until the bare Market came through we saw 2017 there was barely a a swing within the overall trend really really strong Market through 2016 into 2017 had the peak then there was a bit choppy after that obviously Bitcoin dumped into a bare market and then uh 2013 we had the peak somewhere around November December top you had all of the monthly higher lows forming and then this went a little bit messy from that point so if we uh just put a highlight over each of those sorry bull markets you see through these periods here uh essentially anytime that the trend has been clean the trend has been up bitcoin’s been going relatively strong then you get this choppy period through the middle choppy period through the middle another choppy period here and that was actually a bare market for the S&P 500 well hasn’t turned out very well for for Bitcoin or for altcoins as well so this is still well and truly on track here do we get any sort of monthly breakdown within the overall trend it’s always possible of course but for now this has been relatively you know relatively clean into the into the move to the upside now although the S&P 500 didn’t break any monthly swings throughout the last three Cycles the Bitcoin chart obviously has broken some of those monthly swings and it’s not uncommon for Bitcoin to break a monthly swing throughout the bull market we see it generally early on in the piece so 2015 there was a monthly swing break here that was August taking out that low and then it was pretty much straight up from that point uh you also had it in 2020 monthly swing breakdown then pretty strong to the upside and then most recently it was a very weak one on some charts it doesn’t show up because of the different exchange volume of course but for here August 2024 we had the monthly swing break as well so for now things are still in up on the monthly chart however this is pretty damn close to the action it wouldn’t surprise me if we had a you know close here maybe a reversal March down and then we start to get going from that point now that may line up with some of the economic data and you know economic narratives that are continuing to play out here Arthur Hayes puts a good point in here I’m not going to go through and read the entire article essentially just saying you know trouble ahead but ENT it’s just looking at short-term stuff here but us fed to the rescue essentially looking at money Printing and then go through to explain how this can all work out where you know there might be problems with the the US you’ll see a bit of a mini collapse you know a bit of a correction here which is essentially the volatility that we’re seeing in the markets and then the US comes to the the rescue again potentially with that money printer and and sparking up the markets yet again but at the moment it doesn’t seem like they need to do that because of where the position is right now the prices are still damn high and for the S&P 500 it’s only you know 78 off a new all-time high this climb here doesn’t give me confidence that it’s going to continue up in a strong fashion just with the continuous overlap of the bars so essentially through this whole period since Monday with the Deep seek wall of worry event you had a bounce and then a pullback and then a bounce and then intraday there was a lot of up and downs in that period so it seems like indecision even though you’re starting to see higher prices but overall the markets are suggesting we’re going to see further upside so the long-term trends here even if there is still shortterm indecision and you can look back going all the way to November near nearly three months now we’re getting to next week so the first week of Feb this is the second week of November you can see it’s basically been in a trading range of 58 up to 61 6150 and it hasn’t really gone anywhere but when we look back at the overall trend as I pointed out earlier in the video pretty strong uptrends and the markets as I’ll get to many of those are still exploding out there hitting new all-time highs the NASDAQ similar sort of trajectory here this is a bit of a sideways grind at the moment and as I turn on the you know the indicators here to the downside same prices are still there as we looked at from yesterday’s video we got the lows there at 20,600 and then the extensions here at 19,900 so the market can still drop you’ll obviously see a pick up in the fear but that would still hold the macro structure uh intact for the next leg the Dow Jones hit a new all-time high yesterday as I said just earlier we got new all-time highs playing out only just it’s not as impressive as some of the others here the Australian Market smashed into a new all-time high yesterday closed at its second highest close in history today uh Friday last day of the week last day of the month new all-time high pretty big move and we’ve hit that first Target as I showed you earlier on when we’re watching this double bottom play out here so you can use this type of strategy this analysis of your uh FIB extensions in your markets to identify different areas of support resistance maybe areas that the market might find some weakness and then go on to hit those Prof profit targets so looking at 85 here and also looking further up to around 8600 points so that Z Aussie Market hit a new alltime high the Dow Jones hit a new alltime high Canada has hit a new all-time high this is stuff we’ve been following now for months and months on the channel as the market was looking at or the media was looking at recessions all the way back here in 2223 the cycle has suggested up and the charts more importantly were suggesting up as well and the strength has continued to build look at angle here from those lows and then the angle starts to steepen and steepen that’s a sign of the end stages you see it in crypto all the time doesn’t mean this is the end but it can it can get more ridiculous towards the end uh it’s like that saying the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent so you know rip to all the guys that kept trying to short this Market on the way up some of those have even gone out of business I think it was Hindenberg fund went out of business continuing to try and short the bull market it’s been a very long bull market the top 50 in Europe so your Euro stocks 50 also hit a new Fresh high it’s not at its new all-time high yet that goes back to 2000 so I think it’s going to happen this year and that would be a 25e all-time high price uh we’ve seen as I said Thursday new Al new fresh High that’s been led by the UK which is at a new all-time high huge bar to break out I love this sort of pattern here where you get this strong move out a pull back and then basically gets going again and it pulled back right to the tops of those previous highs so the same old saying support becomes resistance you can see that resistance uh previously now became support so it’s been led by the UK top 50 Germany also hit another new all-time high maybe you’re getting sick of me saying this but we were looking at this all through 2024 as Germany kept hitting new all-time highs and then late in 23 and it started to hit new all-time highs as well going all the way back here and again in 2025 it’s hitting new all-time high prices yet again France hitting some fresh highs not new all-time highs yet but it’s had a pretty strong run up and I dare say it’s going to continue in the footsteps of the UK and Germany even though Germany has been two years in a recession mind you 2023 2024 recession they’re talking about potentially another recession this year but the stock market is where it matters where you where do you put your money where do you trade Where do you um speculate I was going to say gamble but where do you speculate in the markets and if they’re going up and you a spot long well screw what the media are saying doesn’t matter about this call for recession moving on to China also having a pretty strong move here so this is just on a daily chart the last 24 hours it it Consolidated and now yesterday had a reasonable strong move up we are getting back towards those resistance levels at 13,400 13,500 but if we take a look at at the gain that China has had since the Chinese government talked about turning on those money printers again coming up to yesterday that is now dead on 20% so from that low it went ballistic and then started to settle out again just as you would expect uh like we see with altcoins as well when things go absolutely bananas then it typically comes back in this case it’s come back settled for now I guess I could you know just tone it down a little bit it settled above the previous tops that’s what this white line is through here if I draw a straight line and at the moment it’s looking like it wants to attack 134 135 again uh Japan still holding out at these highs this was basically the previous old all-time high of 1989 so it was a 34e high broke it came back and now sitting on those levels you can see on the macro here the higher lows just keep forming and the last one this is the Emerging Markets India holding out here above the 50% level just a couple of days up actually you got 1 2 3 look at that if this is going to be that 3 days up this would have to be a significant low it is 122 days now from the top so let’s take a look at the three days up for India let’s make a note here uh 3day rule in play so we’ll see how that plays out and whether it works on the Indian stock market the nifty50 okay over to the US dollar which at the moment has only hit the overbalance in price but not in time yet it needs to come lower and break past the the low there 106.7 before or if you know can’t go above 110 before it breaks that low and that would then satisfy the overbalance in time as well then we get to Breaking the swing and the 50% level but this could be that start of the move down for the US dollar which then also helps out assets Bitcoin cryptos Etc and we’re also seeing an overbalance in price but not in time yet for the Euro vers USD from this particular low so something that uh I’m definitely watching here is that’s the big part of the dxy and you can see that the overbalance in prices there because it’s gone further than this particular run up but it still needs to extend that in time the other things that have burst yesterday was gold 92 days since that previous top so exactly 3 months and it burst out into another new all-time high taking out $2,800 now at 2850 so this thing is still going on another run you’re seeing silver also push higher here breaking past the 50% over the last few days and also doing 3.8% in a day 2% the day before and for the energy sector oil has also uh put in a little bit of a base here above those previous tops now it’s not confirmed yet but you can just see how the market is starting to slow here after Monday 27th there was a reversal another test lower and then another reversal it’s not basically just falling out out of bed like it had done from that top uh I guess for the support here that’s where I’m looking at roughly 71 7150 and my near my my near my narrative and theory on this is I’m putting those two words is that energies are going to increase over this last period of the cycle that is and that’s going to cause some inflation as well and I think the market doesn’t expect that I could be wrong maybe that’s the case you know some people might be still expecting some inflation or they think Trump’s going to take it uh you know get it under control let’s wait and see it’s still extremely early days this particular data point here was super interesting as well just with the short-term low for crude oil so the crude oil Futures declined eight of the last 10 days so they’re looking at red and green not the ups and downs bars that that we focus on for our analysis but nonetheless in terms of the data points out of the last 10 sessions from a three-month high so basically down eight of the last 10 sessions that’s in red similar pre uh precedence saw the commodity railing 91% of the time so in terms of the probabilities that you’re going to see an upside here for for oil n out of 10 times you’re going to see that and just looking at this particular graph uh only going back to 2023 often when you see at least eight of the last 10 sessions down it’s due for a bounce and that was a pretty significant bounce um you one little one here bounce another one here bounce another one here significant Bounce has not broken past that low and now we see another one at potentially a a higher low here so if we do get that bounc that could be part of this bottom pattern forming which is now taken roughly 2 years the fair and grid index sitting at neutral so not much to be said here that rounds out the traditional Finance update with a lot of those markets hitting new all-time high so the markets continue to push higher and higher regardless of whether the investors believe that these markets can continue going higher what’s actually happening is that they are going higher now in other news I’m starting a new Instagram I’ll let you know when that is live with particular names here I’ve got so many names to get through and a look at but I’ll send an email out and also put it on these YouTube videos make sure you subscribe to the email list you’ll also get the report that comes out next week and you get the Tia premium sale name email address I’ll send an email out so that you know when that real Instagram is live and you guys can choose to subscribe or not I know some of you had some pretty strong opinions about Instagram you’re just a nonetheless let’s move on to bitcoin and cryptocurrencies the exchange volume for crypto has dropped off yet again as we’ve looked at over the last couple of days what we want to see here is a pick up in volume so that we see more of the degenerates not everyone’s a degenerate I guess but more money coming back into the system the good news is that we’re seeing higher lows the bad news is that the interest has dropped off and generally we will not we won’t see breakouts we won’t see massive higher prices unless the exchange volume comes back just take a look at November you see the exchange volume moving higher that was on the 7th so we had the election on what was it the fifth 6th then the seventh started to break the previous tops of the last two or so months then we got the really big move up right now we’re basically between a rock and a hard place between the current High and the current low here we take a look at the alltime values it doesn’t mean that the game is over yet we’re just putting in higher lows at the moment more people seem to be joining the you know Bitcoin cryptocurrency space and are finding their ways through these uh you know these exchanges right so what we don’t want to see is a breakdown of this $50 billion level and for it to sit under here for too long that would mean that more people are leaving and it’s going to take a lot longer to build back up unless there was some sort of God send and the thing just shot straight back up to the moon so for now if this is not trading higher it’s unlikely that we’re going to see the prices absolutely for at least for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies explode in the next 24 hours but as I’ve talked about with all the other data I showed you earlier reasons why I still think the bull market is intact and it might just be taking some time even if this period of you know quarter 1 might not be as clean as previous years for the fear and grid index for whatever reason people are still greedy and extremely greedy for BTC we’re at 76 the last couple of days have been 70 uh between 72 and 70ish on top of that with the fear and greed index we just saw it break back above my little diagonal line here it did hit extreme greed again so I’m waiting to see how this continues to play out do we see another lower high form and the price continue to to grind lower here into the 50% levels or we actually going to see some of that volume come back into the game put in a higher low and start to push higher to the upside and I’ve got a reason for why that could happen in just a second so let’s just finish off with the market sentiment here crypto and Bitcoin search volume has been down like this is just all data I don’t an opinion on this because it is what it is I can’t change these numbers from Google Trends the trend for Bitcoin is down this week the trend for crypto is down this week so less search volume for that as well mirror is what’s going on with the exchange volume and the liquidations it’s just sort of drying up at this point but it’s not necessarily a bad thing it’s that period where if we get these scare bars to the downside then I think it’s some good buying opportunities and in the long term that was the 12 months we’re still seeing higher lows for the search volume here and over the 5year period which takes into account the previous cycle still higher lows so there’s still growing interest over time but in the short term you’re just seeing people come in and out in and out usdt dominance again continues to grind out the good news on this is it remains below the 50% level but continues to grind sideways here remember if it goes above 4.2 and above the diagonal here roughly 4.4 then that is bearish for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies continues to remain here and grind lower then that’s a little more bullish and the breakdown would be the area where you get this massive explosion in prices for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies total cryptocurrency market cap also rocking a place it hasn’t really gone anywhere it’s still holding up even if we did see some scare bars to the downside to me that would be a good space for some extra buying opportunity because of the macro cycle that’s still intact and on top of that I think we’re going to run out of time for some altcoins today on top of that ethereum had a relatively good day yesterday closing back above both 50% levels $3,100 and $3,200 with a slightly higher low overall the volume is still very low it’s still below average here it could be building the next well the price it needs to get above is still $3,500 but the eth BTC chart is the big interesting one here which I will leave for a future video subscribe to the channel like the content I’ll give you a little insight now with these turning points at lows you can look at these time frames on a monthly chart here I think it’s a good one to bring up for the end of the month obviously end of January I don’t think much is going to happen in the next 21 hours could we see eth get back above 036 in the next 21 hours I mean look anything is possible it would be an absolute Mega pump if it did 14 15 % e BTC in the next 21 hours if that’s the case great I’ll try and make a video tomorrow but if it doesn’t you still got eight months down and the last time we saw eight months down was back here in 2019 and that was the bottom didn’t necessarily go anywhere very quickly but it was still the low higher low and it started to push higher from there so even if this does turn around it might still be a bit of time to get back above key resistance levels in particular you got the diagonal downtrend here you have monthly swing tops we have weekly swing tops to get above we have the weekly swing bottoms and monthly swing bottoms and the 50% level so he’s got a lot of work to do if he can do it and break through all those levels relatively quickly then it could be on send mode send it to 6% 6 and a half 7% uh and then the big one to tackle would be at what is that 8 and 1 half to 9% I don’t know if that’s going to happen in this cycle I don’t know if it’ll ever happen again for eth but at least if we are to see some upside here probably going to be some good things across cryptos and for eth should be outperforming BTC uh at any point if it’s able to break back above and that goes along with the the overbalance in time and price figure that there that we are watching now uh which has been adjusted to 0.045 so that would be the overbalance in price and ideally it happens in um you know that a longer period of time than any of the previous rallies in this 8 plus month uh uh dump collapse of the eth BTC price you thought you could get rid of me no we have one more to look at it’s salse eth we’ve seen the extensions hit so this is a look at which is going to be stronger and I’ll look at this in further detail with that video on ethereum as well if you want to see that hit the like button let me know I’ll put it in the comment section pinned comment down below if you do want to see that here I’m just looking at the strength running out in salana vers eth just according to the charts maybe we’ve seen that last pump up we’ve hit 100% here maybe it’s got further to go we’ll wait and see uh but I’ll talk about this more in those future videos like subscribe fourth birthday sale is on now and I’ll see you guys back here at the next video might be a while as I’m heading to Thailand on Sunday for a friend’s wedding basically the whole week but I’ll see you when I see you at the next video thanks again guys take care peace out
Posted inDigital currencies
